When allies cant count on U.S. ISR, commercial space becomes strategic
The global security environment is becoming more volatile, not less. The war in Ukraine grinds on. China is increasingly assertive in the Indo-Pacific. The Middle East remains unstable. North Korea continues to test missiles and challenge regional stability. Together, these dynamics are straining the international system in ways not seen since the early Cold War.
The U.S. Intelligence Community has been explicit about the stakes. In its 2025 Annual Threat Assessment, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence warns that Russia, China, Iran and North Korea "individually and collectively" are challenging the United States' interests through coordinated campaigns that blend military pressure, asymmetric tactics and strategic competition short of war.
Monitoring and managing these threats depends, more than ever, on space-based intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR).
For decades, U.S. allies have relied heavily on American space capabilities to provide that ISR backbone. Some allies - notably France and Germany - maintain sophisticated national intelligence assets. But most partners depend to a significant degree on U.S. satellites for early warning, situational awareness and operational intelligence.
That assumption is now under stress.
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The Trump administration's 2025 National Security Strategy makes clear that Washington expects allies to shoulder a greater share of their own defense burden, including investments in capabilities long provided by the U.S. American resources are finite, and American ISR will increasingly be prioritized against the highest-end threats.
Among allies - particularly in Europe - this has triggered a quiet but serious concern: what happens if U.S. ISR support is reduced, delayed or reprioritized during a crisis?
In practical terms, allies face three options. They can accept reduced access to U.S. ISR. They can build sovereign space architectures of their own - an expensive, multi-year undertaking. Or they can pursue alternative models that deliver intelligence effects faster, at lower cost and with greater resilience.
This is where commercial space enters the strategic equation.
Thousands of commercial satellites are already on orbit, providing electro-optical, synthetic aperture radar, infrared, RF and other sensing capabilities. These systems generate enormous volumes of data relevant to national security missions - from maritime surveillance to missile activity to battlefield monitoring.
The challenge is no longer access to data. It is integration.
Commercial constellations were not designed to function as a unified ISR enterprise. Tasking, timing, sensor fusion and data delivery remain fragmented across providers. For allied defense ministries and operational commanders, stitching together multiple commercial feeds into coherent, actionable intelligence remains a major operational hurdle.
Solving this integration problem is now strategically consequential - and it demands action.
Governments and industry should focus on three priorities.
First, allied defense establishments need to treat commercial ISR integration as a core capability, not an ad hoc supplement. That means investing in architectures that can task, fuse and deliver data across multiple providers in near-real time.
Second, the U.S. should actively encourage and enable this shift. Helping allies integrate commercial ISR reduces long-term dependency on U.S. government systems while allowing American "exquisite" capabilities to remain focused on the most demanding missions.
Third, industry must move beyond single-provider solutions toward interoperable platforms that can operate across constellations, sensors and national boundaries. The future of allied ISR will depend less on any one satellite and more on how effectively diverse systems can be orchestrated.
Some companies are already moving in this direction. For example, Divergent Space Technologies - where I am on the board - has a platform called GEOX that's designed to act as orchestration layers across commercial constellations, coordinating multi-sensor tasking and fusing outputs into operational intelligence products. Approaches like this are not intended to replace government-owned systems, but to complement them - helping allies and partners extract real value from the rapidly expanding commercial space ecosystem.
The broader point is not about any single company. It is about a shift in how space power is generated and shared.
For allies facing a more uncertain security environment and less guaranteed access to U.S. ISR, commercial space is no longer just a supplement. Integrated effectively, it can become a strategic capability - one that strengthens allied resilience, supports coalition operations and ultimately serves U.S. national security interests as well.
Frank A. Rose is President of Chevalier Strategic Advisors, a strategic advisory firm focused on geopolitics and defense technology, and a member of the board of Divergent Space Technologies. He previously served as U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Arms Control and as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Space and Defense Policy, where he worked on space security issues.
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